Hurricane Forecast 2010

The City of Norfolk provides weekly updates to the league on developments that may have an effect on our neighborhood. Saturday, I received the city's most recent projection for the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season and I wanted to share the numbers with you.

The baseline is the last 50 years (1950 thru 2000). The update is April 7, 2010 from the earlier December 2009 forecast.

Named Storms
Past Average: 9.6
Projected: 15

Hurricanes
Past Average: 5.9
Projected: 8

Intense Hurricanes
Past Average: 2.3
Projected: 4

Cyclonic Energy
Past Average: 96.1
Projected: 150

Cyclonic Activity
Past Average: 100
Projected: 160

While the numbers appear alarming, I don't believe we need to go into panic mode. There were predictions made last year that never materialized.

I would encourage you to visit www.fema.gov for an up to date flood map of Lochhaven. You can determine if you are in a flood plain. Most home insurances include wind and rain damage with a 5% hurricane deductible, but not flooding. Flood insurance is available through many insurance carriers and is backed by FEMA.

As an example, my house - built in 1952 and has never flooded - is designated "Highly Likely" to suffer water damage. When I had a mortgage, I was required to carry flood insurance. I have kept the policy active ever since, as those of us who went through Hurricane Isabell in 2004 can testify, the Lafayette River swelled its banks and flooded a number of homes, some of which had to be taken down. The cost for my policy is $700 annually. That covers both the structure and contents. Your home's cost may vary for obvious reasons.

On a side note, in the event of a severe hurricane I would plan to evacuate Lochhaven. I stayed thru Isabell and, frankly, wish I hadn't. The storm was nerve-racking, trees were falling everywhere (I had never seen that), and the flooding intense. Afterwards, there was no power or phone service for 2-weeks. The temps were hot, no AC, and noisy generators ran all night long. Bugs and spiders overran the house as it was the only dry spot they could find. Cocktail hour without ice? Canned sardines for dinner?

Next time, I'm hopping a plane for NYC.



Second Pres parking lot off North Shore.
Never park there during a flood event.



I had waterfront property for 24 hours as the Lafayette River crested.



North Shore looking towards Hampton Blvd.
Trees and power lines down everywhere.



My front yard. Had to climb over limbs just to get out.
Leaning tree ready to fall. Never slept well until it came down.

If you have any photos you would like to post of Hurricane Isabell, send them to me and I'll get them up. Thanks, Bill.